2023 Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023, 6:00 PM · Scheumann Stadium
Toledo @ Ball State
Predicted scoreLikely
Toledo
33.2
Ball State
21.2
Ball State win probability: 23%
Margin (Ball State − Toledo): -12.0 (80% range -32 to 8)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Toledo 13 – Ball State 6 (margin error 5.0, total error 35.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.