2023 Week 14 · Dec 2, 2023, 5:00 PM · Ford Field (neutral site)

Miami (OH) @ Toledo

Predicted scoreToss-up

Miami (OH)

25.1

Toledo

25.5

Toledo win probability: 51%

Margin (Toledo − Miami (OH)): 0.4 (80% range -20 to 21)

Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Miami (OH) 23 – Toledo 14 (margin error 9.4, total error 13.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.