Troy
Sun Belt
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 | @ Clemson | 27–16 | 34.2–17.1 | 6.1 |
| Week 3 | vs Memphis | 28–7 | 28.4–24.8 | 17.4 |
| Week 4 | @ Buffalo | 17–21 | 22.7–26.5 | 0.2 |
| Week 6 | vs South Alabama | 24–31 | 27.2–24.9 | 9.3 |
| Week 7 | @ Texas State | 41–48 | 31.5–22.1 | 16.4 |
| Week 8 | @ UL Monroe | 14–37 | 21.9–29.3 | 15.6 |
| Week 9 | vs Louisiana | 23–35 | 22.3–26.3 | 7.9 |
| Week 10 | vs Arkansas State | 23–10 | 23.1–31.4 | 21.3 |
| Week 12 | @ Old Dominion | 33–0 | 28.0–19.7 | 24.7 |
| Week 13 | vs Georgia State | 19–31 | 23.0–29.0 | 6.0 |
| Week 14 | @ Southern Miss | 18–28 | 24.0–25.1 | 8.9 |
| Week 15 | @ James Madison | 31–14 | 32.3–15.0 | 0.3 |
| Week 1 | @ Jacksonville State | 17–13 | 27.3–27.7 | 4.4 |