2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 4:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Memphis @ Troy

Predicted scoreToss-up

Memphis

28.4

Troy

24.8

Troy win probability: 41%

Margin (Troy − Memphis): -3.6 (80% range -24 to 17)

Total: 53.2 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Memphis 28 – Troy 7 (margin error 17.4, total error 18.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.