2025 Week 7 · Oct 12, 2025, 12:00 AM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Troy @ Texas State
Predicted scoreLikely
Troy
22.1
Texas State
31.5
Texas State win probability: 72%
Margin (Texas State − Troy): 9.4 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Troy 48 – Texas State 41 (margin error 16.4, total error 35.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.