Texas State

Pac-12

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	vs Utah State	26.4–30.0	59%
Week 9	@ Boise State	36.3–25.0	25%
Week 10	@ Oregon State	35.0–27.2	32%
Week 11	vs Fresno State	26.7–29.7	57%
Week 12	vs Washington State	24.5–30.0	64%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	@ Texas	59–7	37.5–19.0	33.5
Week 2	vs UTSA	31–26	31.5–26.0	0.6
Week 3	vs North Texas	35–49	37.7–23.4	28.3
Week 4	vs Incarnate Word	10–63	—	—
Week 5	@ San Diego State	31–29	26.3–28.7	4.4
Week 7	vs Colorado State	27–66	29.3–36.1	32.2