2026 Week 3 · Sep 20, 2026, 2:00 AM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
North Texas @ Texas State
Predicted scoreLikely
North Texas
37.7
Texas State
23.4
Texas State win probability: 19%
Margin (Texas State − North Texas): -14.3 (80% range -35 to 7)
Total: 61.1 (80% range 37 to 87)
Actual: North Texas 35 – Texas State 49 (margin error 28.3, total error 22.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:41 PM | -4.2 | 61.6 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:36 PM | -4.2 | 61.7 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:02 PM | -4.2 | 61.7 | 40% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:32 AM | -4.2 | 61.7 | 40% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:23 PM | -6.0 | 61.8 | 36% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:30 PM | -5.4 | 61.7 | 37% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:13 PM | -10.8 | 61.8 | 26% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:03 PM | -14.3 | 61.1 | 19% |