2026 Week 3 · Sep 20, 2026, 2:00 AM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
North Texas @ Texas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
North Texas
32.9
Texas State
28.8
Texas State win probability: 40%
Margin (Texas State − North Texas): -4.2 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 61.7 (80% range 37 to 89)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:41 PM | -4.2 | 61.6 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:36 PM | -4.2 | 61.7 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:02 PM | -4.2 | 61.7 | 40% |