2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 7:30 PM · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Texas State @ Texas
Predicted scoreConfident
Texas State
19.2
Texas
37.4
Texas win probability: 87%
Margin (Texas − Texas State): 18.3 (80% range -3 to 39)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 34 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 45 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:15 PM | 18.5 | 56.6 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:16 PM | 18.7 | 56.6 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:04 PM | 18.3 | 56.6 | 87% |