2026 Week 10 · Nov 8, 2026, 3:30 AM · Reser Stadium
Texas State @ Oregon State
Predicted scoreLean
Texas State
33.0
Oregon State
26.0
Oregon State win probability: 33%
Margin (Oregon State − Texas State): -7.1 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 59.0 (80% range 35 to 85)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:20 PM | -7.1 | 59.0 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:26 PM | -7.1 | 59.0 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:24 PM | -7.1 | 59.0 | 33% |