2026 Week 10 · Nov 8, 2026, 3:30 AM · Reser Stadium
Texas State @ Oregon State
Predicted scoreLean
Texas State
27.2
Oregon State
35.0
Oregon State win probability: 68%
Margin (Oregon State − Texas State): 7.8 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 62.2 (80% range 37 to 89)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.54% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.53% |
| 28 | 31 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:20 PM | -7.1 | 59.0 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:26 PM | -7.1 | 59.0 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:24 PM | -7.1 | 59.0 | 33% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:56 AM | -7.1 | 59.0 | 34% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:03 PM | -7.2 | 59.0 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:42 PM | -6.8 | 58.8 | 34% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:54 PM | -0.6 | 60.4 | 49% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:25 PM | 1.3 | 60.1 | 53% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:32 PM | 1.3 | 60.2 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:35 PM | 1.6 | 60.1 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:47 PM | 1.6 | 60.1 | 54% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:47 PM | 0.6 | 61.0 | 51% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:42 PM | 4.0 | 62.0 | 59% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:07 PM | 9.1 | 61.0 | 71% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:00 PM | 7.8 | 62.2 | 68% |