2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 11:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Washington State @ Texas State
Predicted scoreLean
Washington State
24.5
Texas State
30.0
Texas State win probability: 64%
Margin (Texas State − Washington State): 5.5 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:54 PM | 1.0 | 58.7 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:56 PM | 0.9 | 58.7 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:55 PM | 1.0 | 58.6 | 52% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:09 AM | 1.0 | 58.6 | 52% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:52 PM | 0.8 | 58.6 | 52% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:39 PM | 0.4 | 58.2 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:40 PM | -4.4 | 56.2 | 39% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:31 PM | -2.3 | 56.6 | 44% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:40 PM | -2.2 | 56.6 | 44% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:55 PM | -2.0 | 56.5 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:48 PM | -2.0 | 56.5 | 45% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:06 PM | 4.8 | 56.2 | 61% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:33 PM | 5.0 | 55.0 | 62% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:32 PM | 2.9 | 53.5 | 58% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:35 PM | 5.5 | 54.5 | 64% |