Texas State
Pac-12
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Eastern Michigan | 27–52 | 21.5–33.4 | 13.1 |
| Week 2 | @ UTSA | 36–43 | 27.1–28.5 | 5.6 |
| Week 3 | @ Arizona State | 34–15 | 34.5–23.5 | 8.0 |
| Week 6 | @ Arkansas State | 31–30 | 23.5–39.7 | 17.2 |
| Week 7 | vs Troy | 48–41 | 22.1–31.5 | 16.4 |
| Week 8 | @ Marshall | 40–37 | 29.3–34.3 | 8.1 |
| Week 10 | vs James Madison | 52–20 | 29.6–28.7 | 31.1 |
| Week 11 | @ Louisiana | 42–39 | 27.3–30.4 | 6.1 |
| Week 12 | @ Southern Miss | 14–41 | 27.1–33.0 | 21.0 |
| Week 13 | vs UL Monroe | 14–31 | 20.3–37.4 | 0.2 |
| Week 14 | vs South Alabama | 26–49 | 27.4–34.2 | 16.2 |
| Week 1 | vs Rice | 10–41 | 19.8–31.9 | 18.9 |