2025 Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025, 7:30 PM · Alamodome
Texas State @ UTSA
Predicted scoreToss-up
Texas State
28.5
UTSA
27.1
UTSA win probability: 47%
Margin (UTSA − Texas State): -1.4 (80% range -22 to 20)
Total: 55.6 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Texas State 43 – UTSA 36 (margin error 5.6, total error 23.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.