UTSA

American Athletic

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	@ Tulane	28.0–24.0	40%
Week 10	@ Florida Atlantic	27.4–30.5	58%
Week 11	vs North Texas	32.7–28.5	40%
Week 12	@ UAB	23.6–28.4	62%
Week 13	vs Tulsa	25.5–30.4	62%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	vs UT Rio Grande Valley	16–45	—	—
Week 2	@ Texas State	26–31	26.0–31.5	0.6
Week 3	@ Texas	30–6	36.4–15.5	3.1
Week 4	vs Colorado State	45–59	23.9–30.5	7.4
Week 5	@ Rice	14–16	17.8–35.2	15.4
Week 6	vs South Florida	24–31	25.6–26.6	6.0
Week 7	vs Navy	34–38	22.6–28.1	1.5