Predicted scoreConfident
UTSA
15.5
Texas
36.4
Texas win probability: 91%
Margin (Texas − UTSA): 20.9 (80% range 0 to 42)
Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: UTSA 6 – Texas 30 (margin error 3.1, total error 16.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 28 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:41 PM | 17.4 | 52.4 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:47 PM | 17.7 | 52.3 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:29 PM | 16.1 | 52.0 | 85% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:24 AM | 17.4 | 52.1 | 86% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:13 PM | 17.7 | 52.3 | 87% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:11 PM | 16.7 | 52.4 | 86% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:02 PM | 21.2 | 51.7 | 91% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:52 PM | 20.9 | 52.0 | 91% |