Predicted scoreLikely
UTSA
18.0
Texas
34.1
Texas win probability: 85%
Margin (Texas − UTSA): 16.1 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:41 PM | 17.4 | 52.4 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:47 PM | 17.7 | 52.3 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:29 PM | 16.1 | 52.0 | 85% |