2026 Week 6 · Oct 8, 2026, 11:30 PM · Alamodome
South Florida @ UTSA
Predicted scoreToss-up
South Florida
25.6
UTSA
26.6
UTSA win probability: 52%
Margin (UTSA − South Florida): 1.0 (80% range -19 to 21)
Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: South Florida 24 – UTSA 31 (margin error 6.0, total error 2.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:25 PM | -2.3 | 55.8 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:19 PM | -2.3 | 55.8 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:01 PM | -2.3 | 55.8 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:48 AM | -2.3 | 55.8 | 45% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:35 PM | -2.4 | 55.8 | 44% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:12 PM | -3.1 | 55.0 | 42% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:06 PM | -1.2 | 54.4 | 47% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:32 PM | -1.6 | 55.9 | 46% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:21 PM | -1.5 | 56.0 | 46% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:24 AM | -1.5 | 55.9 | 46% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:02 PM | -1.5 | 55.9 | 46% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:49 PM | 1.3 | 53.9 | 53% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:00 PM | 1.0 | 52.3 | 52% |