2026 Week 6 · Oct 8, 2026, 11:30 PM · Alamodome
South Florida @ UTSA
Predicted scoreToss-up
South Florida
29.1
UTSA
26.7
UTSA win probability: 44%
Margin (UTSA − South Florida): -2.3 (80% range -23 to 18)
Total: 55.8 (80% range 31 to 81)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:25 PM | -2.3 | 55.8 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:19 PM | -2.3 | 55.8 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:01 PM | -2.3 | 55.8 | 44% |