Predicted scoreLean
Navy
22.6
UTSA
28.1
UTSA win probability: 64%
Margin (UTSA − Navy): 5.5 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 50.6 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Navy 34 – UTSA 38 (margin error 1.5, total error 21.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:40 PM | 3.1 | 51.3 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:43 PM | 3.1 | 51.3 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:50 PM | 3.1 | 51.3 | 58% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:30 AM | 3.1 | 51.3 | 58% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:52 PM | 3.0 | 51.3 | 58% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:20 PM | 1.6 | 51.2 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:10 PM | 1.2 | 51.2 | 53% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:07 PM | 6.3 | 51.5 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:52 PM | 6.3 | 51.6 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:16 AM | 6.6 | 51.6 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:43 PM | 6.6 | 51.6 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:36 PM | 8.3 | 50.4 | 70% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:32 PM | 7.1 | 47.5 | 68% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:40 PM | 5.5 | 50.6 | 64% |