Predicted scoreToss-up
Navy
24.1
UTSA
27.2
UTSA win probability: 58%
Margin (UTSA − Navy): 3.1 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 51.3 (80% range 28 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:40 PM | 3.1 | 51.3 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:43 PM | 3.1 | 51.3 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:50 PM | 3.1 | 51.3 | 58% |