2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Alamodome
Colorado State @ UTSA
Predicted scoreLean
Colorado State
23.9
UTSA
30.5
UTSA win probability: 66%
Margin (UTSA − Colorado State): 6.6 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Colorado State 45 – UTSA 59 (margin error 7.4, total error 49.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:57 PM | 10.3 | 55.0 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:53 PM | 10.3 | 54.9 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:45 PM | 10.3 | 55.0 | 74% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:26 AM | 10.2 | 55.1 | 74% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:45 PM | 10.0 | 54.9 | 74% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:56 PM | 8.7 | 54.7 | 71% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:05 PM | 5.6 | 54.2 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:38 PM | 6.5 | 54.4 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:15 PM | 6.6 | 54.3 | 66% |