2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Alamodome
Colorado State @ UTSA
Predicted scoreLikely
Colorado State
22.4
UTSA
32.6
UTSA win probability: 74%
Margin (UTSA − Colorado State): 10.3 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:57 PM | 10.3 | 55.0 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:53 PM | 10.3 | 54.9 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:45 PM | 10.3 | 55.0 | 74% |