Predicted scoreToss-up
UTSA
24.0
Tulane
28.0
Tulane win probability: 60%
Margin (Tulane − UTSA): 4.0 (80% range -16 to 24)
Total: 52.1 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:53 PM | 4.8 | 52.6 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:54 PM | 4.8 | 52.5 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:49 PM | 4.8 | 52.6 | 62% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:45 AM | 4.8 | 52.6 | 62% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:12 PM | 4.8 | 52.6 | 62% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:10 PM | 4.5 | 51.7 | 61% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:00 PM | 3.6 | 49.6 | 59% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:31 PM | 2.6 | 50.8 | 57% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:08 PM | 2.6 | 50.8 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:23 AM | 2.9 | 50.9 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:09 PM | 2.9 | 50.9 | 58% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:56 PM | 0.2 | 51.9 | 50% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:42 PM | 3.4 | 51.9 | 59% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:08 PM | 2.2 | 52.0 | 56% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:01 PM | 4.0 | 52.1 | 60% |