2026 Week 10 · Nov 6, 2026, 1:00 AM · FAU Stadium
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic
Predicted scoreToss-up
UTSA
30.5
Florida Atlantic
27.4
Florida Atlantic win probability: 42%
Margin (Florida Atlantic − UTSA): -3.1 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 57.9 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:13 PM | -5.0 | 53.8 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:12 PM | -4.9 | 53.8 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:45 PM | -4.9 | 53.8 | 38% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:59 AM | -4.9 | 53.8 | 38% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:42 PM | -5.0 | 53.8 | 38% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:01 PM | -5.8 | 54.4 | 36% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:01 PM | -8.0 | 58.4 | 31% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:30 PM | -7.2 | 58.5 | 33% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:02 PM | -7.1 | 58.5 | 33% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:22 PM | -6.9 | 58.4 | 33% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:05 PM | -6.9 | 58.4 | 33% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:53 PM | -4.6 | 55.1 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:24 PM | -2.5 | 53.6 | 44% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:12 PM | -2.4 | 55.6 | 44% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:44 PM | -3.1 | 57.9 | 42% |