2026 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 7:30 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
UTSA @ Texas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
UTSA
28.7
Texas State
28.3
Texas State win probability: 49%
Margin (Texas State − UTSA): -0.4 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 57.0 (80% range 34 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.58% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:28 PM | -0.8 | 57.5 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:25 PM | -0.6 | 57.3 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:32 PM | -0.4 | 57.0 | 49% |