2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Alamodome
North Texas @ UTSA
Predicted scoreLean
North Texas
32.7
UTSA
28.5
UTSA win probability: 40%
Margin (UTSA − North Texas): -4.2 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 61.2 (80% range 37 to 87)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.55% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:39 PM | -3.6 | 60.1 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:30 PM | -3.6 | 60.1 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:47 PM | -3.6 | 60.1 | 42% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:52 AM | -3.6 | 60.1 | 41% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:04 PM | -3.6 | 60.1 | 41% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:31 PM | -3.1 | 59.6 | 42% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:46 PM | -3.0 | 61.1 | 43% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:11 PM | -5.6 | 58.9 | 37% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:50 PM | -5.6 | 59.0 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:10 PM | -5.2 | 58.9 | 38% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:27 PM | -5.2 | 58.9 | 38% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:44 PM | 0.1 | 58.9 | 50% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:51 PM | -2.5 | 57.9 | 44% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:40 PM | -0.9 | 60.4 | 48% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:17 PM | -4.2 | 61.2 | 40% |