2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Alamodome
North Texas @ UTSA
Predicted scoreToss-up
North Texas
31.8
UTSA
28.3
UTSA win probability: 42%
Margin (UTSA − North Texas): -3.6 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 60.1 (80% range 35 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:39 PM | -3.6 | 60.1 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:30 PM | -3.6 | 60.1 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:47 PM | -3.6 | 60.1 | 42% |