Predicted scoreLean
Tulsa
25.5
UTSA
30.4
UTSA win probability: 62%
Margin (UTSA − Tulsa): 4.9 (80% range -16 to 25)
Total: 55.8 (80% range 32 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:11 PM | 16.3 | 54.2 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:03 PM | 16.3 | 54.3 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:20 PM | 16.3 | 54.2 | 84% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:34 AM | 16.3 | 54.3 | 84% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:00 PM | 16.3 | 54.2 | 85% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:37 PM | 16.1 | 54.4 | 84% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:50 PM | 14.4 | 53.8 | 82% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:03 PM | 13.1 | 55.2 | 79% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:15 PM | 13.1 | 55.2 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:01 PM | 13.1 | 54.0 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:20 PM | 13.1 | 54.0 | 79% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:52 PM | 12.1 | 52.4 | 78% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:38 PM | 7.9 | 51.2 | 69% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:50 PM | 6.9 | 53.9 | 67% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:57 PM | 4.9 | 55.8 | 62% |