Predicted scoreLean
UTSA
28.4
UAB
23.6
UAB win probability: 38%
Margin (UAB − UTSA): -4.8 (80% range -25 to 15)
Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:55 PM | -10.8 | 54.5 | 25% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:45 PM | -10.8 | 54.5 | 25% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:42 PM | -10.8 | 54.5 | 25% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:52 AM | -10.8 | 54.5 | 25% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:43 PM | -10.8 | 54.5 | 25% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:07 PM | -11.1 | 53.7 | 24% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:04 PM | -10.3 | 56.2 | 26% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:01 PM | -10.8 | 54.9 | 25% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:32 PM | -10.8 | 54.9 | 25% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:42 PM | -9.1 | 54.8 | 29% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:15 PM | -9.1 | 54.8 | 29% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:14 PM | -9.8 | 51.6 | 27% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:15 PM | -6.5 | 50.6 | 34% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:16 PM | -7.9 | 50.8 | 31% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:40 PM | -4.8 | 52.0 | 38% |