Predicted scoreConfident
UTSA
35.2
Rice
17.8
Rice win probability: 14%
Margin (Rice − UTSA): -17.4 (80% range -38 to 3)
Total: 53.0 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: UTSA 16 – Rice 14 (margin error 15.4, total error 23.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.81% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 38 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:08 PM | -12.6 | 50.6 | 21% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:09 PM | -12.6 | 50.6 | 21% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:41 PM | -12.6 | 50.6 | 21% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:48 AM | -12.6 | 50.6 | 21% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:55 PM | -12.6 | 50.6 | 21% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:32 PM | -13.1 | 50.5 | 20% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:57 PM | -14.0 | 50.4 | 19% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:17 PM | -16.6 | 49.0 | 14% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:42 PM | -16.6 | 49.0 | 14% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:16 AM | -16.4 | 49.0 | 14% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:30 PM | -16.4 | 49.0 | 14% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:36 PM | -17.4 | 53.0 | 14% |