2025 Week 3 · Sep 14, 2025, 2:30 AM · Mountain America Stadium

Texas State @ Arizona State

Predicted scoreLikely

Texas State

23.5

Arizona State

34.5

Arizona State win probability: 75%

Margin (Arizona State − Texas State): 11.0 (80% range -10 to 32)

Total: 58.0 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Texas State 15 – Arizona State 34 (margin error 8.0, total error 9.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.