2025 Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025, 7:30 PM · Joan C. Edwards Stadium

Texas State @ Marshall

Predicted scoreLean

Texas State

34.3

Marshall

29.3

Marshall win probability: 38%

Margin (Marshall − Texas State): -5.1 (80% range -27 to 17)

Total: 63.6 (80% range 38 to 90)

Actual: Texas State 37 – Marshall 40 (margin error 8.1, total error 13.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.