2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 8:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Texas State @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreLikely

Texas State

39.7

Arkansas State

23.5

Arkansas State win probability: 17%

Margin (Arkansas State − Texas State): -16.2 (80% range -38 to 6)

Total: 63.2 (80% range 38 to 90)

Actual: Texas State 30 – Arkansas State 31 (margin error 17.2, total error 2.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.