Sam's Scores

2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 8:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Texas State @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreLikely
Texas State
39.7
Arkansas State
23.5
Arkansas State win probability: 17%
Margin (Arkansas State − Texas State): -16.2 (80% range -38 to 6)
Total: 63.2 (80% range 38 to 90)
Actual: Texas State 30 – Arkansas State 31 (margin error 17.2, total error 2.2)
Most likely scorelines
AwayHomeProbability
38170.66%
38240.63%
31210.58%
35170.57%
42240.53%
Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.

Home 0, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 0, Away 3 — relative likelihood 1%Home 0, Away 6 — relative likelihood 1%Home 0, Away 9 — relative likelihood 2%Home 0, Away 12 — relative likelihood 4%Home 0, Away 15 — relative likelihood 5%Home 0, Away 18 — relative likelihood 8%Home 0, Away 21 — relative likelihood 10%Home 0, Away 24 — relative likelihood 13%Home 0, Away 27 — relative likelihood 16%Home 0, Away 30 — relative likelihood 18%Home 0, Away 33 — relative likelihood 19%Home 0, Away 36 — relative likelihood 20%Home 0, Away 39 — relative likelihood 19%Home 0, Away 42 — relative likelihood 18%Home 0, Away 45 — relative likelihood 16%Home 0, Away 48 — relative likelihood 13%Home 0, Away 51 — relative likelihood 10%Home 0, Away 54 — relative likelihood 7%Home 0, Away 57 — relative likelihood 5%Home 0, Away 60 — relative likelihood 3%Home 0, Away 63 — relative likelihood 2%Home 3, Away 0 — relative likelihood 1%Home 3, Away 3 — relative likelihood 1%Home 3, Away 6 — relative likelihood 2%Home 3, Away 9 — relative likelihood 3%Home 3, Away 12 — relative likelihood 5%Home 3, Away 15 — relative likelihood 8%Home 3, Away 18 — relative likelihood 11%Home 3, Away 21 — relative likelihood 15%Home 3, Away 24 — relative likelihood 19%Home 3, Away 27 — relative likelihood 23%Home 3, Away 30 — relative likelihood 26%Home 3, Away 33 — relative likelihood 28%Home 3, Away 36 — relative likelihood 29%Home 3, Away 39 — relative likelihood 29%Home 3, Away 42 — relative likelihood 27%Home 3, Away 45 — relative likelihood 23%Home 3, Away 48 — relative likelihood 20%Home 3, Away 51 — relative likelihood 15%Home 3, Away 54 — relative likelihood 12%Home 3, Away 57 — relative likelihood 8%Home 3, Away 60 — relative likelihood 5%Home 3, Away 63 — relative likelihood 3%Home 6, Away 0 — relative likelihood 1%Home 6, Away 3 — relative likelihood 1%Home 6, Away 6 — relative likelihood 2%Home 6, Away 9 — relative likelihood 4%Home 6, Away 12 — relative likelihood 6%Home 6, Away 15 — relative likelihood 10%Home 6, Away 18 — relative likelihood 14%Home 6, Away 21 — relative likelihood 19%Home 6, Away 24 — relative likelihood 25%Home 6, Away 27 — relative likelihood 31%Home 6, Away 30 — relative likelihood 36%Home 6, Away 33 — relative likelihood 39%Home 6, Away 36 — relative likelihood 41%Home 6, Away 39 — relative likelihood 40%Home 6, Away 42 — relative likelihood 38%Home 6, Away 45 — relative likelihood 33%Home 6, Away 48 — relative likelihood 28%Home 6, Away 51 — relative likelihood 22%Home 6, Away 54 — relative likelihood 17%Home 6, Away 57 — relative likelihood 12%Home 6, Away 60 — relative likelihood 8%Home 6, Away 63 — relative likelihood 5%Home 9, Away 0 — relative likelihood 1%Home 9, Away 3 — relative likelihood 2%Home 9, Away 6 — relative likelihood 3%Home 9, Away 9 — relative likelihood 5%Home 9, Away 12 — relative likelihood 8%Home 9, Away 15 — relative likelihood 12%Home 9, Away 18 — relative likelihood 18%Home 9, Away 21 — relative likelihood 24%Home 9, Away 24 — relative likelihood 32%Home 9, Away 27 — relative likelihood 39%Home 9, Away 30 — relative likelihood 46%Home 9, Away 33 — relative likelihood 51%Home 9, Away 36 — relative likelihood 54%Home 9, Away 39 — relative likelihood 54%Home 9, Away 42 — relative likelihood 51%Home 9, Away 45 — relative likelihood 45%Home 9, Away 48 — relative likelihood 38%Home 9, Away 51 — relative likelihood 31%Home 9, Away 54 — relative likelihood 24%Home 9, Away 57 — relative likelihood 17%Home 9, Away 60 — relative likelihood 12%Home 9, Away 63 — relative likelihood 8%Home 12, Away 0 — relative likelihood 1%Home 12, Away 3 — relative likelihood 2%Home 12, Away 6 — relative likelihood 3%Home 12, Away 9 — relative likelihood 6%Home 12, Away 12 — relative likelihood 9%Home 12, Away 15 — relative likelihood 14%Home 12, Away 18 — relative likelihood 21%Home 12, Away 21 — relative likelihood 29%Home 12, Away 24 — relative likelihood 38%Home 12, Away 27 — relative likelihood 48%Home 12, Away 30 — relative likelihood 57%Home 12, Away 33 — relative likelihood 63%Home 12, Away 36 — relative likelihood 67%Home 12, Away 39 — relative likelihood 68%Home 12, Away 42 — relative likelihood 65%Home 12, Away 45 — relative likelihood 58%Home 12, Away 48 — relative likelihood 50%Home 12, Away 51 — relative likelihood 40%Home 12, Away 54 — relative likelihood 31%Home 12, Away 57 — relative likelihood 23%Home 12, Away 60 — relative likelihood 16%Home 12, Away 63 — relative likelihood 10%Home 15, Away 0 — relative likelihood 1%Home 15, Away 3 — relative likelihood 2%Home 15, Away 6 — relative likelihood 4%Home 15, Away 9 — relative likelihood 6%Home 15, Away 12 — relative likelihood 10%Home 15, Away 15 — relative likelihood 16%Home 15, Away 18 — relative likelihood 24%Home 15, Away 21 — relative likelihood 33%Home 15, Away 24 — relative likelihood 44%Home 15, Away 27 — relative likelihood 55%Home 15, Away 30 — relative likelihood 66%Home 15, Away 33 — relative likelihood 75%Home 15, Away 36 — relative likelihood 80%Home 15, Away 39 — relative likelihood 81%Home 15, Away 42 — relative likelihood 78%Home 15, Away 45 — relative likelihood 71%Home 15, Away 48 — relative likelihood 61%Home 15, Away 51 — relative likelihood 50%Home 15, Away 54 — relative likelihood 39%Home 15, Away 57 — relative likelihood 28%Home 15, Away 60 — relative likelihood 20%Home 15, Away 63 — relative likelihood 13%Home 18, Away 0 — relative likelihood 1%Home 18, Away 3 — relative likelihood 2%Home 18, Away 6 — relative likelihood 4%Home 18, Away 9 — relative likelihood 6%Home 18, Away 12 — relative likelihood 11%Home 18, Away 15 — relative likelihood 17%Home 18, Away 18 — relative likelihood 25%Home 18, Away 21 — relative likelihood 36%Home 18, Away 24 — relative likelihood 48%Home 18, Away 27 — relative likelihood 60%Home 18, Away 30 — relative likelihood 73%Home 18, Away 33 — relative likelihood 83%Home 18, Away 36 — relative likelihood 90%Home 18, Away 39 — relative likelihood 92%Home 18, Away 42 — relative likelihood 89%Home 18, Away 45 — relative likelihood 82%Home 18, Away 48 — relative likelihood 71%Home 18, Away 51 — relative likelihood 59%Home 18, Away 54 — relative likelihood 46%Home 18, Away 57 — relative likelihood 34%Home 18, Away 60 — relative likelihood 24%Home 18, Away 63 — relative likelihood 16%Home 21, Away 0 — relative likelihood 1%Home 21, Away 3 — relative likelihood 2%Home 21, Away 6 — relative likelihood 4%Home 21, Away 9 — relative likelihood 6%Home 21, Away 12 — relative likelihood 11%Home 21, Away 15 — relative likelihood 17%Home 21, Away 18 — relative likelihood 25%Home 21, Away 21 — relative likelihood 36%Home 21, Away 24 — relative likelihood 49%Home 21, Away 27 — relative likelihood 63%Home 21, Away 30 — relative likelihood 76%Home 21, Away 33 — relative likelihood 87%Home 21, Away 36 — relative likelihood 95%Home 21, Away 39 — relative likelihood 98%Home 21, Away 42 — relative likelihood 96%Home 21, Away 45 — relative likelihood 89%Home 21, Away 48 — relative likelihood 78%Home 21, Away 51 — relative likelihood 65%Home 21, Away 54 — relative likelihood 51%Home 21, Away 57 — relative likelihood 38%Home 21, Away 60 — relative likelihood 27%Home 21, Away 63 — relative likelihood 18%Home 24, Away 0 — relative likelihood 1%Home 24, Away 3 — relative likelihood 2%Home 24, Away 6 — relative likelihood 3%Home 24, Away 9 — relative likelihood 6%Home 24, Away 12 — relative likelihood 10%Home 24, Away 15 — relative likelihood 16%Home 24, Away 18 — relative likelihood 24%Home 24, Away 21 — relative likelihood 35%Home 24, Away 24 — relative likelihood 48%Home 24, Away 27 — relative likelihood 61%Home 24, Away 30 — relative likelihood 75%Home 24, Away 33 — relative likelihood 87%Home 24, Away 36 — relative likelihood 96%Home 24, Away 39 — relative likelihood 100%Home 24, Away 42 — relative likelihood 99%Home 24, Away 45 — relative likelihood 92%Home 24, Away 48 — relative likelihood 82%Home 24, Away 51 — relative likelihood 69%Home 24, Away 54 — relative likelihood 55%Home 24, Away 57 — relative likelihood 41%Home 24, Away 60 — relative likelihood 29%Home 24, Away 63 — relative likelihood 20%Home 27, Away 0 — relative likelihood 1%Home 27, Away 3 — relative likelihood 2%Home 27, Away 6 — relative likelihood 3%Home 27, Away 9 — relative likelihood 5%Home 27, Away 12 — relative likelihood 9%Home 27, Away 15 — relative likelihood 14%Home 27, Away 18 — relative likelihood 22%Home 27, Away 21 — relative likelihood 32%Home 27, Away 24 — relative likelihood 44%Home 27, Away 27 — relative likelihood 57%Home 27, Away 30 — relative likelihood 71%Home 27, Away 33 — relative likelihood 83%Home 27, Away 36 — relative likelihood 92%Home 27, Away 39 — relative likelihood 96%Home 27, Away 42 — relative likelihood 96%Home 27, Away 45 — relative likelihood 91%Home 27, Away 48 — relative likelihood 81%Home 27, Away 51 — relative likelihood 69%Home 27, Away 54 — relative likelihood 55%Home 27, Away 57 — relative likelihood 42%Home 27, Away 60 — relative likelihood 30%Home 27, Away 63 — relative likelihood 21%Home 30, Away 0 — relative likelihood 1%Home 30, Away 3 — relative likelihood 1%Home 30, Away 6 — relative likelihood 2%Home 30, Away 9 — relative likelihood 4%Home 30, Away 12 — relative likelihood 7%Home 30, Away 15 — relative likelihood 12%Home 30, Away 18 — relative likelihood 19%Home 30, Away 21 — relative likelihood 28%Home 30, Away 24 — relative likelihood 38%Home 30, Away 27 — relative likelihood 50%Home 30, Away 30 — relative likelihood 63%Home 30, Away 33 — relative likelihood 74%Home 30, Away 36 — relative likelihood 83%Home 30, Away 39 — relative likelihood 88%Home 30, Away 42 — relative likelihood 88%Home 30, Away 45 — relative likelihood 84%Home 30, Away 48 — relative likelihood 76%Home 30, Away 51 — relative likelihood 65%Home 30, Away 54 — relative likelihood 53%Home 30, Away 57 — relative likelihood 40%Home 30, Away 60 — relative likelihood 29%Home 30, Away 63 — relative likelihood 20%Home 33, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 33, Away 3 — relative likelihood 1%Home 33, Away 6 — relative likelihood 2%Home 33, Away 9 — relative likelihood 3%Home 33, Away 12 — relative likelihood 6%Home 33, Away 15 — relative likelihood 10%Home 33, Away 18 — relative likelihood 15%Home 33, Away 21 — relative likelihood 23%Home 33, Away 24 — relative likelihood 32%Home 33, Away 27 — relative likelihood 42%Home 33, Away 30 — relative likelihood 53%Home 33, Away 33 — relative likelihood 63%Home 33, Away 36 — relative likelihood 71%Home 33, Away 39 — relative likelihood 76%Home 33, Away 42 — relative likelihood 77%Home 33, Away 45 — relative likelihood 74%Home 33, Away 48 — relative likelihood 67%Home 33, Away 51 — relative likelihood 58%Home 33, Away 54 — relative likelihood 48%Home 33, Away 57 — relative likelihood 37%Home 33, Away 60 — relative likelihood 27%Home 33, Away 63 — relative likelihood 19%Home 36, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 36, Away 3 — relative likelihood 1%Home 36, Away 6 — relative likelihood 1%Home 36, Away 9 — relative likelihood 3%Home 36, Away 12 — relative likelihood 5%Home 36, Away 15 — relative likelihood 7%Home 36, Away 18 — relative likelihood 12%Home 36, Away 21 — relative likelihood 18%Home 36, Away 24 — relative likelihood 25%Home 36, Away 27 — relative likelihood 33%Home 36, Away 30 — relative likelihood 42%Home 36, Away 33 — relative likelihood 51%Home 36, Away 36 — relative likelihood 58%Home 36, Away 39 — relative likelihood 62%Home 36, Away 42 — relative likelihood 64%Home 36, Away 45 — relative likelihood 62%Home 36, Away 48 — relative likelihood 57%Home 36, Away 51 — relative likelihood 49%Home 36, Away 54 — relative likelihood 41%Home 36, Away 57 — relative likelihood 32%Home 36, Away 60 — relative likelihood 24%Home 36, Away 63 — relative likelihood 17%Home 39, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 39, Away 3 — relative likelihood 0%Home 39, Away 6 — relative likelihood 1%Home 39, Away 9 — relative likelihood 2%Home 39, Away 12 — relative likelihood 3%Home 39, Away 15 — relative likelihood 5%Home 39, Away 18 — relative likelihood 9%Home 39, Away 21 — relative likelihood 13%Home 39, Away 24 — relative likelihood 18%Home 39, Away 27 — relative likelihood 25%Home 39, Away 30 — relative likelihood 32%Home 39, Away 33 — relative likelihood 39%Home 39, Away 36 — relative likelihood 44%Home 39, Away 39 — relative likelihood 48%Home 39, Away 42 — relative likelihood 50%Home 39, Away 45 — relative likelihood 49%Home 39, Away 48 — relative likelihood 45%Home 39, Away 51 — relative likelihood 40%Home 39, Away 54 — relative likelihood 33%Home 39, Away 57 — relative likelihood 26%Home 39, Away 60 — relative likelihood 19%Home 39, Away 63 — relative likelihood 14%Home 42, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 42, Away 3 — relative likelihood 0%Home 42, Away 6 — relative likelihood 1%Home 42, Away 9 — relative likelihood 1%Home 42, Away 12 — relative likelihood 2%Home 42, Away 15 — relative likelihood 4%Home 42, Away 18 — relative likelihood 6%Home 42, Away 21 — relative likelihood 9%Home 42, Away 24 — relative likelihood 13%Home 42, Away 27 — relative likelihood 18%Home 42, Away 30 — relative likelihood 23%Home 42, Away 33 — relative likelihood 28%Home 42, Away 36 — relative likelihood 32%Home 42, Away 39 — relative likelihood 36%Home 42, Away 42 — relative likelihood 37%Home 42, Away 45 — relative likelihood 37%Home 42, Away 48 — relative likelihood 34%Home 42, Away 51 — relative likelihood 30%Home 42, Away 54 — relative likelihood 25%Home 42, Away 57 — relative likelihood 20%Home 42, Away 60 — relative likelihood 15%Home 42, Away 63 — relative likelihood 11%Home 45, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 45, Away 3 — relative likelihood 0%Home 45, Away 6 — relative likelihood 0%Home 45, Away 9 — relative likelihood 1%Home 45, Away 12 — relative likelihood 1%Home 45, Away 15 — relative likelihood 2%Home 45, Away 18 — relative likelihood 4%Home 45, Away 21 — relative likelihood 6%Home 45, Away 24 — relative likelihood 9%Home 45, Away 27 — relative likelihood 12%Home 45, Away 30 — relative likelihood 16%Home 45, Away 33 — relative likelihood 19%Home 45, Away 36 — relative likelihood 22%Home 45, Away 39 — relative likelihood 25%Home 45, Away 42 — relative likelihood 26%Home 45, Away 45 — relative likelihood 26%Home 45, Away 48 — relative likelihood 24%Home 45, Away 51 — relative likelihood 22%Home 45, Away 54 — relative likelihood 19%Home 45, Away 57 — relative likelihood 15%Home 45, Away 60 — relative likelihood 11%Home 45, Away 63 — relative likelihood 8%Home 48, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 48, Away 3 — relative likelihood 0%Home 48, Away 6 — relative likelihood 0%Home 48, Away 9 — relative likelihood 0%Home 48, Away 12 — relative likelihood 1%Home 48, Away 15 — relative likelihood 1%Home 48, Away 18 — relative likelihood 2%Home 48, Away 21 — relative likelihood 4%Home 48, Away 24 — relative likelihood 5%Home 48, Away 27 — relative likelihood 8%Home 48, Away 30 — relative likelihood 10%Home 48, Away 33 — relative likelihood 12%Home 48, Away 36 — relative likelihood 15%Home 48, Away 39 — relative likelihood 16%Home 48, Away 42 — relative likelihood 17%Home 48, Away 45 — relative likelihood 17%Home 48, Away 48 — relative likelihood 17%Home 48, Away 51 — relative likelihood 15%Home 48, Away 54 — relative likelihood 13%Home 48, Away 57 — relative likelihood 10%Home 48, Away 60 — relative likelihood 8%Home 48, Away 63 — relative likelihood 6%Home 51, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 51, Away 3 — relative likelihood 0%Home 51, Away 6 — relative likelihood 0%Home 51, Away 9 — relative likelihood 0%Home 51, Away 12 — relative likelihood 0%Home 51, Away 15 — relative likelihood 1%Home 51, Away 18 — relative likelihood 1%Home 51, Away 21 — relative likelihood 2%Home 51, Away 24 — relative likelihood 3%Home 51, Away 27 — relative likelihood 5%Home 51, Away 30 — relative likelihood 6%Home 51, Away 33 — relative likelihood 8%Home 51, Away 36 — relative likelihood 9%Home 51, Away 39 — relative likelihood 10%Home 51, Away 42 — relative likelihood 11%Home 51, Away 45 — relative likelihood 11%Home 51, Away 48 — relative likelihood 11%Home 51, Away 51 — relative likelihood 10%Home 51, Away 54 — relative likelihood 8%Home 51, Away 57 — relative likelihood 7%Home 51, Away 60 — relative likelihood 5%Home 51, Away 63 — relative likelihood 4%Home 54, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 54, Away 3 — relative likelihood 0%Home 54, Away 6 — relative likelihood 0%Home 54, Away 9 — relative likelihood 0%Home 54, Away 12 — relative likelihood 0%Home 54, Away 15 — relative likelihood 0%Home 54, Away 18 — relative likelihood 1%Home 54, Away 21 — relative likelihood 1%Home 54, Away 24 — relative likelihood 2%Home 54, Away 27 — relative likelihood 3%Home 54, Away 30 — relative likelihood 4%Home 54, Away 33 — relative likelihood 4%Home 54, Away 36 — relative likelihood 5%Home 54, Away 39 — relative likelihood 6%Home 54, Away 42 — relative likelihood 7%Home 54, Away 45 — relative likelihood 7%Home 54, Away 48 — relative likelihood 7%Home 54, Away 51 — relative likelihood 6%Home 54, Away 54 — relative likelihood 5%Home 54, Away 57 — relative likelihood 4%Home 54, Away 60 — relative likelihood 3%Home 54, Away 63 — relative likelihood 2%Home 57, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 57, Away 3 — relative likelihood 0%Home 57, Away 6 — relative likelihood 0%Home 57, Away 9 — relative likelihood 0%Home 57, Away 12 — relative likelihood 0%Home 57, Away 15 — relative likelihood 0%Home 57, Away 18 — relative likelihood 0%Home 57, Away 21 — relative likelihood 1%Home 57, Away 24 — relative likelihood 1%Home 57, Away 27 — relative likelihood 1%Home 57, Away 30 — relative likelihood 2%Home 57, Away 33 — relative likelihood 2%Home 57, Away 36 — relative likelihood 3%Home 57, Away 39 — relative likelihood 3%Home 57, Away 42 — relative likelihood 4%Home 57, Away 45 — relative likelihood 4%Home 57, Away 48 — relative likelihood 4%Home 57, Away 51 — relative likelihood 3%Home 57, Away 54 — relative likelihood 3%Home 57, Away 57 — relative likelihood 3%Home 57, Away 60 — relative likelihood 2%Home 57, Away 63 — relative likelihood 1%Home 60, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 60, Away 3 — relative likelihood 0%Home 60, Away 6 — relative likelihood 0%Home 60, Away 9 — relative likelihood 0%Home 60, Away 12 — relative likelihood 0%Home 60, Away 15 — relative likelihood 0%Home 60, Away 18 — relative likelihood 0%Home 60, Away 21 — relative likelihood 0%Home 60, Away 24 — relative likelihood 1%Home 60, Away 27 — relative likelihood 1%Home 60, Away 30 — relative likelihood 1%Home 60, Away 33 — relative likelihood 1%Home 60, Away 36 — relative likelihood 2%Home 60, Away 39 — relative likelihood 2%Home 60, Away 42 — relative likelihood 2%Home 60, Away 45 — relative likelihood 2%Home 60, Away 48 — relative likelihood 2%Home 60, Away 51 — relative likelihood 2%Home 60, Away 54 — relative likelihood 2%Home 60, Away 57 — relative likelihood 1%Home 60, Away 60 — relative likelihood 1%Home 60, Away 63 — relative likelihood 1%Home 63, Away 0 — relative likelihood 0%Home 63, Away 3 — relative likelihood 0%Home 63, Away 6 — relative likelihood 0%Home 63, Away 9 — relative likelihood 0%Home 63, Away 12 — relative likelihood 0%Home 63, Away 15 — relative likelihood 0%Home 63, Away 18 — relative likelihood 0%Home 63, Away 21 — relative likelihood 0%Home 63, Away 24 — relative likelihood 0%Home 63, Away 27 — relative likelihood 0%Home 63, Away 30 — relative likelihood 0%Home 63, Away 33 — relative likelihood 1%Home 63, Away 36 — relative likelihood 1%Home 63, Away 39 — relative likelihood 1%Home 63, Away 42 — relative likelihood 1%Home 63, Away 45 — relative likelihood 1%Home 63, Away 48 — relative likelihood 1%Home 63, Away 51 — relative likelihood 1%Home 63, Away 54 — relative likelihood 1%Home 63, Away 57 — relative likelihood 1%Home 63, Away 60 — relative likelihood 1%Home 63, Away 63 — relative likelihood 0%Predicted score: Home 23.5, Away 39.706121824303642485460Home score →06121824303642485460Away score →

Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.