2025 Postseason · Jan 2, 2026, 6:00 PM · Amon G. Carter Stadium (neutral site)

Rice @ Texas State

Predicted scoreLikely

Rice

19.8

Texas State

31.9

Texas State win probability: 78%

Margin (Texas State − Rice): 12.1 (80% range -7 to 32)

Total: 51.7 (80% range 29 to 76)

Actual: Rice 10 – Texas State 41 (margin error 18.9, total error 0.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.