2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 8:30 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

Texas State @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLean

Texas State

33.0

Southern Miss

27.1

Southern Miss win probability: 36%

Margin (Southern Miss − Texas State): -6.0 (80% range -28 to 15)

Total: 60.1 (80% range 35 to 86)

Actual: Texas State 41 – Southern Miss 14 (margin error 21.0, total error 5.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.