2025 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025, 8:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

South Alabama @ Texas State

Predicted scoreLean

South Alabama

27.4

Texas State

34.2

Texas State win probability: 66%

Margin (Texas State − South Alabama): 6.8 (80% range -14 to 28)

Total: 61.6 (80% range 37 to 88)

Actual: South Alabama 26 – Texas State 49 (margin error 16.2, total error 13.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.