2025 Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025, 10:00 PM · Cajun Field
Texas State @ Louisiana
Predicted scoreToss-up
Texas State
30.4
Louisiana
27.3
Louisiana win probability: 42%
Margin (Louisiana − Texas State): -3.1 (80% range -24 to 18)
Total: 57.7 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Texas State 39 – Louisiana 42 (margin error 6.1, total error 23.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.