2025 Week 1 · Aug 31, 2025, 12:00 AM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Eastern Michigan @ Texas State

Predicted scoreLikely

Eastern Michigan

21.5

Texas State

33.4

Texas State win probability: 77%

Margin (Texas State − Eastern Michigan): 11.9 (80% range -8 to 32)

Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Eastern Michigan 27 – Texas State 52 (margin error 13.1, total error 24.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.