2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 10:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

UL Monroe @ Texas State

Predicted scoreConfident

UL Monroe

20.3

Texas State

37.4

Texas State win probability: 86%

Margin (Texas State − UL Monroe): 17.2 (80% range -4 to 38)

Total: 57.7 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: UL Monroe 14 – Texas State 31 (margin error 0.2, total error 12.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.