2025 Week 10 · Oct 29, 2025, 12:00 AM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

James Madison @ Texas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

James Madison

29.6

Texas State

28.7

Texas State win probability: 48%

Margin (Texas State − James Madison): -0.9 (80% range -21 to 21)

Total: 58.4 (80% range 34 to 84)

Actual: James Madison 52 – Texas State 20 (margin error 31.1, total error 13.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.