2026 Week 7 · Oct 16, 2026, 12:00 AM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Colorado State @ Texas State
Predicted scoreLean
Colorado State
29.3
Texas State
36.1
Texas State win probability: 66%
Margin (Texas State − Colorado State): 6.8 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 65.4 (80% range 40 to 93)
Actual: Colorado State 27 – Texas State 66 (margin error 32.2, total error 27.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 31 | 38 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:38 PM | 10.1 | 60.3 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:32 PM | 10.1 | 60.3 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:42 PM | 10.1 | 60.3 | 73% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:19 AM | 10.0 | 60.3 | 73% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:39 PM | 10.1 | 60.3 | 73% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:57 PM | 10.3 | 60.1 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:53 PM | 0.6 | 59.7 | 52% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:55 PM | 1.1 | 61.7 | 53% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:51 PM | 1.3 | 61.7 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:00 AM | 1.7 | 61.6 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:30 PM | 1.7 | 61.6 | 54% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:25 PM | 7.0 | 63.4 | 66% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:19 PM | 8.3 | 65.6 | 69% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:50 PM | 6.8 | 65.4 | 66% |