2026 Week 7 · Oct 16, 2026, 12:00 AM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Colorado State @ Texas State
Predicted scoreLikely
Colorado State
25.1
Texas State
35.2
Texas State win probability: 73%
Margin (Texas State − Colorado State): 10.1 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 60.3 (80% range 35 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 28 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:38 PM | 10.1 | 60.3 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:32 PM | 10.1 | 60.3 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:42 PM | 10.1 | 60.3 | 73% |