2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 9:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Fresno State @ Texas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Fresno State
26.7
Texas State
29.7
Texas State win probability: 57%
Margin (Texas State − Fresno State): 3.0 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:37 PM | 5.7 | 54.3 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:41 PM | 5.7 | 54.3 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:08 PM | 5.7 | 54.3 | 64% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:02 AM | 5.7 | 54.3 | 64% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:07 PM | 5.7 | 54.3 | 64% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:58 PM | 5.0 | 54.3 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:20 PM | 1.3 | 52.4 | 53% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:26 PM | 0.0 | 55.5 | 50% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:53 PM | 0.0 | 55.5 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:52 PM | 0.3 | 55.4 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:45 PM | 0.2 | 55.4 | 51% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:51 PM | 5.0 | 57.2 | 62% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:09 PM | 2.4 | 57.0 | 55% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:51 PM | 1.2 | 57.4 | 53% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:24 PM | 3.0 | 56.4 | 57% |