2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 9:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Fresno State @ Texas State
Predicted scoreLean
Fresno State
24.3
Texas State
30.0
Texas State win probability: 64%
Margin (Texas State − Fresno State): 5.7 (80% range -14 to 26)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:37 PM | 5.7 | 54.3 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:41 PM | 5.7 | 54.3 | 64% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:08 PM | 5.7 | 54.3 | 64% |