2026 Week 5 · Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM · Snapdragon Stadium
Texas State @ San Diego State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Texas State
28.7
San Diego State
26.3
San Diego State win probability: 44%
Margin (San Diego State − Texas State): -2.4 (80% range -23 to 18)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Texas State 29 – San Diego State 31 (margin error 4.4, total error 5.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:09 PM | 1.6 | 53.4 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:17 PM | 1.6 | 53.4 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:55 PM | 1.6 | 53.4 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:09 AM | 1.6 | 53.4 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:09 PM | 1.6 | 53.4 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:06 PM | 1.7 | 53.1 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:03 PM | 7.3 | 53.0 | 68% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:52 PM | 5.1 | 52.5 | 62% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:54 PM | 4.9 | 53.0 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:05 AM | 5.2 | 53.0 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:46 PM | 5.2 | 53.0 | 63% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:42 PM | -2.4 | 55.0 | 44% |