2026 Week 5 · Oct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM · Snapdragon Stadium
Texas State @ San Diego State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Texas State
25.9
San Diego State
27.5
San Diego State win probability: 54%
Margin (San Diego State − Texas State): 1.6 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:09 PM | 1.6 | 53.4 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:17 PM | 1.6 | 53.4 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:55 PM | 1.6 | 53.4 | 54% |