2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Utah State @ Texas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Utah State
26.4
Texas State
30.0
Texas State win probability: 59%
Margin (Texas State − Utah State): 3.6 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:52 PM | 2.9 | 62.4 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:57 PM | 2.9 | 62.4 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:00 PM | 2.9 | 62.4 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:14 AM | 2.8 | 62.4 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:06 PM | 2.8 | 62.3 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:54 PM | 3.0 | 62.2 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:09 PM | -3.3 | 62.6 | 42% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:27 PM | -4.9 | 61.1 | 38% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:28 PM | -4.8 | 61.1 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:32 AM | -4.8 | 61.0 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:05 PM | -4.8 | 61.0 | 39% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:08 PM | 2.2 | 59.9 | 55% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:58 PM | 0.6 | 60.5 | 52% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:26 PM | 2.2 | 57.2 | 56% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:00 PM | 3.6 | 56.5 | 59% |