2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 11:30 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Utah State @ Texas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Utah State
29.8
Texas State
32.6
Texas State win probability: 57%
Margin (Texas State − Utah State): 2.9 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 62.4 (80% range 38 to 89)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:52 PM | 2.9 | 62.4 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:57 PM | 2.9 | 62.4 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:00 PM | 2.9 | 62.4 | 57% |