2026 Week 9 · Nov 1, 2026, 2:00 AM · Albertsons Stadium
Texas State @ Boise State
Predicted scoreLikely
Texas State
25.0
Boise State
36.3
Boise State win probability: 75%
Margin (Boise State − Texas State): 11.3 (80% range -10 to 32)
Total: 61.2 (80% range 37 to 87)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:56 PM | 6.3 | 58.6 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:10 PM | 6.2 | 58.5 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:40 PM | 6.3 | 58.5 | 65% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:38 AM | 6.3 | 58.5 | 65% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:20 PM | 6.2 | 58.5 | 65% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:17 PM | 6.1 | 58.2 | 65% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:43 PM | 14.2 | 58.6 | 81% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:55 PM | 14.3 | 59.9 | 81% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:30 PM | 14.2 | 59.9 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:02 PM | 14.4 | 60.0 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:30 PM | 14.4 | 60.0 | 81% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:31 PM | 11.7 | 60.9 | 76% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:00 PM | 12.9 | 60.9 | 78% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:40 PM | 13.0 | 62.8 | 78% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:37 PM | 11.3 | 61.2 | 75% |