2026 Week 9 · Nov 1, 2026, 2:00 AM · Albertsons Stadium
Texas State @ Boise State
Predicted scoreLean
Texas State
26.1
Boise State
32.4
Boise State win probability: 65%
Margin (Boise State − Texas State): 6.3 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 58.5 (80% range 34 to 84)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 38 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:56 PM | 6.3 | 58.6 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:10 PM | 6.2 | 58.5 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:40 PM | 6.3 | 58.5 | 65% |