Troy
Sun Belt
2023 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2023
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 | @ Kansas State | 42–13 | 33.9–16.4 | 11.5 |
| Week 3 | vs James Madison | 16–14 | 27.0–27.1 | 2.0 |
| Week 4 | vs Western Kentucky | 24–27 | 23.2–26.0 | 0.2 |
| Week 5 | @ Georgia State | 7–28 | 26.5–23.4 | 24.1 |
| Week 6 | vs Arkansas State | 3–37 | 18.2–38.3 | 13.9 |
| Week 7 | @ Army | 0–19 | 18.4–25.6 | 11.7 |
| Week 9 | @ Texas State | 13–31 | 21.2–26.8 | 12.4 |
| Week 10 | vs South Alabama | 10–28 | 24.0–23.4 | 18.5 |
| Week 11 | @ UL Monroe | 14–45 | 14.0–33.8 | 11.2 |
| Week 12 | vs Louisiana | 24–31 | 20.0–30.3 | 3.3 |
| Week 13 | @ Southern Miss | 17–35 | 16.3–30.8 | 3.5 |
| Week 14 | vs App State | 23–49 | 23.6–30.6 | 19.0 |
| Week 1 | @ Duke | 17–10 | 26.4–24.8 | 5.4 |