2023 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023, 11:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Troy @ Texas State
Predicted scoreLean
Troy
26.8
Texas State
21.2
Texas State win probability: 36%
Margin (Texas State − Troy): -5.6 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 48.0 (80% range 27 to 71)
Actual: Troy 31 – Texas State 13 (margin error 12.4, total error 4.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 14 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.