2023 Postseason · Dec 23, 2023, 5:00 PM · Protective Stadium (neutral site)

Troy @ Duke

Predicted scoreToss-up

Troy

24.8

Duke

26.4

Duke win probability: 54%

Margin (Duke − Troy): 1.6 (80% range -18 to 21)

Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Troy 10 – Duke 17 (margin error 5.4, total error 24.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.