2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 11:00 PM · Center Parc Stadium
Troy @ Georgia State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Troy
23.4
Georgia State
26.5
Georgia State win probability: 58%
Margin (Georgia State − Troy): 3.1 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 49.9 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Troy 28 – Georgia State 7 (margin error 24.1, total error 14.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:12 PM | 3.1 | 49.9 | 58% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:38 PM | 3.1 | 49.9 | 58% |