2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 4:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Western Kentucky @ Troy

Predicted scoreToss-up

Western Kentucky

23.2

Troy

26.0

Troy win probability: 57%

Margin (Troy − Western Kentucky): 2.8 (80% range -17 to 23)

Total: 49.2 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Western Kentucky 24 – Troy 27 (margin error 0.2, total error 1.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.