2023 Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023, 5:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

Troy @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLikely

Troy

30.8

Southern Miss

16.3

Southern Miss win probability: 17%

Margin (Southern Miss − Troy): -14.5 (80% range -35 to 4)

Total: 47.1 (80% range 26 to 69)

Actual: Troy 35 – Southern Miss 17 (margin error 3.5, total error 4.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.