Troy

Sun Belt

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	vs UL Monroe	18.3–33.3	83%
Week 9	@ James Madison	34.0–19.5	18%
Week 10	vs Louisiana Tech	26.9–24.7	44%
Week 11	@ South Alabama	31.1–27.0	40%
Week 12	vs Georgia Southern	27.7–26.7	47%
Week 13	@ Arkansas State	27.6–27.3	49%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	vs Sam Houston	21–24	17.5–31.8	11.4
Week 2	vs Alabama State	17–34	—	—
Week 3	@ Missouri	27–17	37.2–11.6	15.6
Week 4	@ Utah State	21–10	34.2–19.4	3.8
Week 6	vs Southern Miss	34–55	20.2–28.3	12.9
Week 7	@ Louisiana	33–6	26.0–23.1	24.1