2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Louisiana Tech @ Troy
Predicted scoreToss-up
Louisiana Tech
26.9
Troy
24.7
Troy win probability: 44%
Margin (Troy − Louisiana Tech): -2.2 (80% range -23 to 18)
Total: 51.6 (80% range 29 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:22 PM | 1.4 | 46.7 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:17 PM | 1.4 | 46.6 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:11 PM | 1.4 | 46.7 | 53% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:23 AM | 1.4 | 46.7 | 53% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:56 PM | 1.4 | 46.7 | 53% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:06 PM | 1.2 | 46.7 | 53% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:30 PM | -2.4 | 48.1 | 44% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:35 PM | -1.3 | 45.0 | 46% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:59 PM | -1.3 | 44.9 | 46% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:33 PM | -1.9 | 44.9 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:51 PM | -1.9 | 44.9 | 45% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:03 PM | 1.8 | 45.1 | 54% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:31 PM | 1.2 | 45.8 | 53% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:04 PM | 0.9 | 51.4 | 52% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:53 PM | -2.2 | 51.6 | 44% |