2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Centennial Bank Stadium
Troy @ Arkansas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Troy
25.5
Arkansas State
24.7
Arkansas State win probability: 48%
Margin (Arkansas State − Troy): -0.7 (80% range -21 to 19)
Total: 50.2 (80% range 27 to 74)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:59 PM | -0.7 | 50.2 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:13 PM | -0.7 | 50.2 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:43 PM | -0.7 | 50.2 | 48% |