2026 Week 13 · Nov 28, 2026, 5:00 AM · Centennial Bank Stadium
Troy @ Arkansas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Troy
27.3
Arkansas State
27.6
Arkansas State win probability: 51%
Margin (Arkansas State − Troy): 0.4 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.59% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.58% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:59 PM | -0.7 | 50.2 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:13 PM | -0.7 | 50.2 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:43 PM | -0.7 | 50.2 | 48% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:57 AM | -0.7 | 50.2 | 48% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:04 PM | -0.7 | 50.2 | 48% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:27 PM | -1.0 | 50.4 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:26 PM | 0.4 | 53.9 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:21 PM | 0.7 | 52.9 | 52% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:58 PM | 0.8 | 52.9 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:14 PM | 1.4 | 52.9 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:33 PM | 1.4 | 52.9 | 53% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:33 PM | -3.4 | 52.9 | 42% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:50 PM | -2.0 | 53.3 | 45% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:11 PM | -2.5 | 56.5 | 44% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:53 PM | 0.4 | 54.9 | 51% |