2026 Week 6 · Oct 7, 2026, 12:00 AM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Southern Miss @ Troy
Predicted scoreLikely
Southern Miss
20.2
Troy
28.3
Troy win probability: 70%
Margin (Troy − Southern Miss): 8.1 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 48.5 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Southern Miss 34 – Troy 55 (margin error 12.9, total error 40.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.90% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:24 PM | 4.7 | 48.1 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:17 PM | 4.7 | 48.2 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:56 PM | 4.7 | 48.2 | 62% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:52 AM | 4.7 | 48.2 | 62% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:33 PM | 4.9 | 48.2 | 62% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:51 PM | 4.6 | 49.5 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:46 PM | 3.9 | 50.3 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:29 PM | 3.3 | 49.7 | 58% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:24 PM | 3.3 | 49.7 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:22 AM | 3.9 | 50.5 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:00 PM | 3.9 | 50.5 | 60% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:45 PM | 7.4 | 49.8 | 68% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:58 PM | 8.1 | 48.5 | 70% |