2026 Week 6 · Oct 7, 2026, 12:00 AM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Southern Miss @ Troy
Predicted scoreLean
Southern Miss
21.7
Troy
26.5
Troy win probability: 62%
Margin (Troy − Southern Miss): 4.7 (80% range -14 to 24)
Total: 48.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.75% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:24 PM | 4.7 | 48.1 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:17 PM | 4.7 | 48.2 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:56 PM | 4.7 | 48.2 | 62% |