2026 Week 9 · Oct 29, 2026, 11:30 PM · Bridgeforth Stadium
Troy @ James Madison
Predicted scoreLikely
Troy
19.5
James Madison
34.0
James Madison win probability: 82%
Margin (James Madison − Troy): 14.5 (80% range -6 to 35)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.85% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:00 PM | 16.8 | 47.2 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:59 PM | 16.8 | 47.2 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:05 PM | 16.8 | 47.2 | 87% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:25 AM | 16.9 | 47.3 | 87% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:30 PM | 16.9 | 47.2 | 87% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:40 PM | 17.3 | 47.4 | 87% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:46 PM | 17.4 | 48.2 | 87% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:58 PM | 17.8 | 48.4 | 88% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:55 PM | 17.8 | 48.3 | 88% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:50 AM | 18.1 | 48.4 | 88% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:20 PM | 18.1 | 48.4 | 88% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:20 PM | 16.2 | 50.3 | 85% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:14 PM | 14.9 | 50.6 | 83% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:29 PM | 13.7 | 53.7 | 81% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:30 PM | 14.5 | 53.5 | 82% |