2026 Week 9 · Oct 29, 2026, 11:30 PM · Bridgeforth Stadium
Troy @ James Madison
Predicted scoreConfident
Troy
15.2
James Madison
32.0
James Madison win probability: 87%
Margin (James Madison − Troy): 16.8 (80% range -3 to 37)
Total: 47.2 (80% range 27 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.91% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.89% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.86% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.82% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:00 PM | 16.8 | 47.2 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:59 PM | 16.8 | 47.2 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:05 PM | 16.8 | 47.2 | 87% |